Welcome to the first true article of my new journey at kawntent sports. I've been noticing a higher-than-usual volume of Jonathan Kuminga trades flying around the site lately. Not only has his name been brought up in trade rumors, but the rumors are also fundamentally different from the ones we have seen his whole career. Kuminga has always been in star trade rumors for the Warriors, usually in packages with Moses Moody and Jordan Poole. However, I've been seeing a lot of deals involving Kuminga that deal him for mid-first-round picks in this year's draft and the occasional young, unproven player. Let's look at the reasons why Kuminga's trade rumors have shifted and answer the question, what is Kuminga's true value? To learn about this situation, let's begin by taking a look at some of the recent rumors about Kuminga on Fanspo. As we take a look at people's trades, keep in mind I'm not trying to slander the people or the trades, just provide the best analysis I can.
The first trade we'll be taking a look at is u/treshawn_battle's trade sending Kuminga to the Oklahoma City Thunder. This trade has received neutral reception from Fanspo users, and is at 0 points at the time of writing with 4 votes. In other words, about half of the people who have seen the post like it, and half do not. In exchange for Kuminga, the Warriors receive Ousmane Dieng and the 17th overall pick, who treshawn_battle proposes should be used to draft Dereck Lively. Dieng averaged 4.9 points and 2.7 rebounds per game on 42/26/65 shooting splits in approximately 15 minutes per game for the Thunder. In other words, Dieng was an end-of-bench piece on a lottery team. Sure, he's just a rookie, but he didn't show much promise in his freshman season in the NBA. On the topic of freshmen, let's discuss Dereck Lively, treshawn_battle's suggested pick at 17. Lively averaged just 5.7 points per game along with 5.4 rebounds per game in a lackluster season for Duke. I have nothing against Lively, but I consider him a backup center at best for the Warriors, behind Kevon Looney in the rotation and probably behind JaMychal Green as well. Thus, this trade sends out Jonathan Kuminga in exchange for two players who would be end-of-bench or G-League guys for a Warriors team this season that should be looking to contend for a championship.
You can see treshawn_battle's trade here: https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/trades/lffF4Mxbw_xVxa/simple-trade
The second trade we will be discussing today is a trade by Mohid (PaoloOwnsYou) which sends Kuminga to the Nets in a package with Jordan Poole and the 19th overall pick. In return, the Warriors acquire Ben Simmons and the 21st and 22nd picks in the draft. The trade has slightly negative reception, with -1 points through 5 votes. This deal goes to show the fall in not only Kuminga's value, but also that of Jordan Poole. However, that is not a topic for this article. Unlike a lot of people on the site, I still believe that Ben Simmons can be a contributor in the NBA, and I'll even admit that he is a great fit on this Warriors team. However, I also understand that acquiring Simmons is a gamble, and should be taken on in a low-risk, high-reward scenario (like my recent Simmons to Spurs deal). In Mohid's deal, the Warriors give up multiple assets that hold positive value in exchange for Simmons. At best, Simmons and Poole's bad contracts cancel each other out, leaving a deal looking like pick 19 and Kuminga for pick 21 and 22. This implies a value for Kuminga as about the same as pick 24 in this draft, which I strongly disagree with. However, assuming that one of the Nets picks is compensation for flipping Simmons into Poole, it leaves an even worse deal for Golden State.
You can see Mohid's trade here: https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/trades/I-3wMTpD0r7YTA/nets-trade-up-warriors-acquire-assets
These trades and more go to show that Kuminga is not considered a highly valuable player and, if he was placed in this year's draft, may not even be a lottery pick. Let's discuss the reasons why his value is considered lower than it has been for the past few years. In my opinion, there are two main reasons for the drop in value. The first reason is his stagnant production: Kuminga's per-game stats this season are essentially identical to his rookie season despite a 4 minute per game increase. Additionally, it has been widely rumored that Kuminga is not content with his role in Golden State and wants a move to a situation where he has more opportunity. Both of these are valid concerns, however I think the Warriors' unique position this offseason can mitigate each issue.
First, let's discuss Kuminga's stagnation. This seems to mainly be a result of opportunity still, as his 3-point percentage increased by 3.5% and his field goal percentage increased by about 1%. The Warriors experienced a relatively healthy regular season with the exception of Wiggins, which didn't allow too much opportunity for Kuminga in the offense. A larger role should allow Kuminga to break the stagnant trend and have a breakout season. Also, I feel that a larger role offensively is absolutely in the cards for Kuminga next season, even if he remains in Golden State. One main reason for this is the fact that the Warriors will be forced to make some changes this offseason due to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement; they will be severely handicapped if they do not manage to move on from one of their major contract players. This will inevitably free up the ball to go to Kuminga more, and probably rotation minutes as well. A second factor allowing Kuminga to get greater opportunity is that one of those players, the only unrestricted free agent of the group, happens to be Draymond Green. Green has signaled that he is considering moving on from the Warriors, especially if he can get more money elsewhere (which is likely possible considering the Warriors predicament). If Green elects to leave Golden State, then the power forward position, or at least significant minutes there, open up. These minutes would allow Kuminga to become a regular starter or at minimum sixth man and truly make a name for himself in Golden State. We also ought to keep in mind that Kuminga has shown flashes of greatness often over the past two seasons, and could turn out to be an All-NBA caliber guy, or better!
In conclusion, the Warriors should try not to move on from Kuminga unless they get an insane offer that is too good to pass up on. There is a great chance that all of Kuminga's opportunity issues will be solved next season, especially if Draymond isn't on the roster. Golden State will also likely need power forward minutes, which Kuminga can fill. If I'm new Warriors General Manager Mike Dunleavy, I wouldn't give up Kuminga for any less than a package looking something like the 4th overall pick from Houston along with Kenyon Martin Jr. and Jae'Sean Tate, a far cry from the packages we see floating around Fanspo these days.
If you have made it this far, thank you so much for reading! This post took a lot of effort as it's quite a long article. Please let me know your thoughts on the Kuminga situation in the comments! I'd be very interested to hear your opinions on the Kuminga situation this offseason.